Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  13.3  18.2  12.7  17.8  15.6  14.3  18.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 113.0  97.0  82.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  75.0  36.0  35.0  45.0  19.0  71.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  73.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%       14.2%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       49.5%       67.9%       58.7%
 30kt / 24h       32.0%       50.2%       41.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       49.7%       34.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.4%       48.5%       29.0%
 45kt / 36h       48.8%       78.9%       63.9%
 55kt / 36h       38.2%       64.9%       51.6%
 55kt / 48h       44.1%       64.3%       54.2%
 70kt / 48h       34.8%       62.7%       48.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       81.4%       72.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP242025 250918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  13.3  18.2  12.7  17.8  15.6  14.3  18.3  N  U  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  73.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%