Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  17.3  10.6  11.9  17.2  19.7  14.3  27.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 116.0 117.0 115.0 101.0  96.0  83.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  56.0  97.0  93.0  65.0  77.0  25.0   5.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%       14.9%       12.5%
 25kt / 24h       60.1%       76.6%       68.3%
 30kt / 24h       38.5%       65.6%       52.0%
 35kt / 24h       24.2%       65.6%       44.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       62.3%       35.4%
 45kt / 36h       56.2%       81.5%       68.9%
 55kt / 36h       40.3%       69.1%       54.7%
 55kt / 48h       59.0%       70.1%       64.5%
 70kt / 48h       44.4%       62.2%       53.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       78.6%       70.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP242025 250919 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  17.3  10.6  11.9  17.2  19.7  14.3  27.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%