Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  12.8  10.8  12.4  20.6  10.7  17.7  17.6  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 117.0 112.0 106.0  96.0  88.0  86.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  97.0  93.0  64.0  70.0  51.0  25.0   7.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0   4.0  -6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.3%       28.2%       25.2%
 25kt / 24h       74.0%       84.6%       79.3%
 30kt / 24h       59.9%       79.4%       69.7%
 35kt / 24h       48.0%       79.4%       63.7%
 40kt / 24h       19.9%       78.0%       48.9%
 45kt / 36h       67.4%       85.9%       76.7%
 55kt / 36h       53.0%       77.1%       65.1%
 55kt / 48h       65.6%       76.5%       71.1%
 70kt / 48h       51.3%       70.9%       61.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       78.6%       70.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP242025 250919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  12.8  10.8  12.4  20.6  10.7  17.7  17.6  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0   4.0  -6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%