Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  10.6  14.4  17.3  20.5  15.4  26.2  20.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 116.0 112.0 106.0  96.0  88.0  90.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  93.0  64.0  65.0  77.0  25.0   5.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  83.0  84.0  81.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.3%       54.6%       54.9%
 25kt / 24h       86.0%       90.8%       88.4%
 30kt / 24h       78.5%       90.5%       84.5%
 35kt / 24h       76.1%       90.5%       83.3%
 40kt / 24h       34.4%       89.5%       62.0%
 45kt / 36h       79.4%       87.8%       83.6%
 55kt / 36h       66.9%       80.5%       73.7%
 55kt / 48h       42.5%       80.0%       61.3%
 70kt / 48h       29.0%       69.8%       49.4%
 65kt / 72h       54.7%       72.3%       63.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP242025 250919 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  10.6  14.4  17.3  20.5  15.4  26.2  20.4  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  83.0  84.0  81.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%