Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.7  20.5  19.9  11.0  11.8  20.1  17.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 115.0 110.0 105.0  95.0  91.0  82.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  42.0  62.0  69.0  57.0  54.0   6.0  97.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       78.3%       63.7%       71.0%
 25kt / 24h       92.3%       89.8%       91.0%
 30kt / 24h       92.3%       89.8%       91.0%
 35kt / 24h       90.9%       89.8%       90.3%
 40kt / 24h       58.9%       89.8%       74.3%
 45kt / 36h       89.1%       85.7%       87.4%
 55kt / 36h       87.1%       77.5%       82.3%
 55kt / 48h       64.1%       78.0%       71.0%
 70kt / 48h       50.5%       65.0%       57.7%
 65kt / 72h       57.7%       63.6%       60.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP242025 250920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.7  20.5  19.9  11.0  11.8  20.1  17.5  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%