Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.8  14.7  11.2  20.3  20.6  24.1  22.3  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 105.0 102.0  95.0  91.0  78.0  63.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  42.0  58.0  46.0  54.0   8.0  72.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0  -7.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.3%       47.0%       62.2%
 25kt / 24h       78.8%       72.8%       75.8%
 30kt / 24h       78.8%       72.8%       75.8%
 35kt / 24h       73.6%       72.8%       73.2%
 40kt / 24h       56.9%       69.7%       63.3%
 45kt / 36h       97.0%       64.4%       80.7%
 55kt / 36h       56.6%       50.2%       53.4%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       22.5%       32.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP242025 250920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.8  14.7  11.2  20.3  20.6  24.1  22.3  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0  -7.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%