Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  14.4  10.8  15.5  19.5  16.0  26.3  19.4  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 102.0  94.0  90.0  88.0  65.0  51.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  58.0  46.0  36.0  37.0  35.0  87.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       67.6%       27.5%       47.6%
 25kt / 24h       55.7%       44.7%       50.2%
 30kt / 24h       54.1%       40.0%       47.0%
 35kt / 24h       47.3%       39.5%       43.4%
 40kt / 24h       34.8%       33.5%       34.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP242025 250920 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  14.4  10.8  15.5  19.5  16.0  26.3  19.4  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%