Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  10.6  12.4  17.3  20.7  26.5  19.5  21.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0 100.0  95.0  94.0  76.0  62.0  45.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  44.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  36.0  51.0  71.0  50.0  70.0  45.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0   4.0   5.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.3%       40.2%       56.2%
 25kt / 24h       59.2%       50.8%       55.0%
 30kt / 24h       57.0%       49.0%       53.0%
 35kt / 24h       55.1%       48.8%       51.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP242025 250921 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  10.6  12.4  17.3  20.7  26.5  19.5  21.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0   4.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%