Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  15.1  15.3  15.9  19.7  29.4  25.4  27.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  95.0  95.0  89.0  67.0  51.0  43.0  40.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  38.0  37.0  35.0  48.0  89.0 122.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0   7.0   3.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.1%        0.0%       32.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP242025 250921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  15.1  15.3  15.9  19.7  29.4  25.4  27.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0   7.0   3.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%