Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  15.1  15.9  24.3  24.0  19.7  22.9  27.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  92.0  85.0  76.0  62.0  46.0  41.0  36.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  37.0  35.0  23.0  93.0  65.0 113.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  82.0  83.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   7.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP242025 250921 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  15.1  15.9  24.3  24.0  19.7  22.9  27.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  82.0  83.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   7.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%