Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.2  23.2  20.1  29.9  25.4  26.0  25.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  85.0  72.0  66.0  48.0  43.0  35.0  32.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  19.3  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  35.0  23.0  48.0  89.0 122.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  U  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  80.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   7.0   2.0  11.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP242025 250921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.2  23.2  20.1  29.9  25.4  26.0  25.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  80.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   7.0   2.0  11.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%