Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  18.7  21.7  21.9  20.9  26.4  29.1  30.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  69.0  62.0  48.0  42.0  37.0  33.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  57.0  87.0  90.0 121.0  98.0  48.0  46.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  85.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   5.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0  10.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        0.0%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP242025 250922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  18.7  21.7  21.9  20.9  26.4  29.1  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  85.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   5.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0  10.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%