Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.6  25.2  18.5  21.4  29.1  29.4  27.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  58.0  49.0  45.0  39.0  32.0  33.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  32.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  93.0  73.0  52.0  84.0  39.0  59.0  31.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  80.0  81.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0  15.0  13.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP242025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  19.6  25.2  18.5  21.4  29.1  29.4  27.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  80.0  81.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0  15.0  13.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%