Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  25.2  17.7  18.1  27.6  31.3  28.2  28.5  N  N  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  49.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  33.0  36.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  73.0  52.0  81.0  66.0  42.0  32.0  24.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  84.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  19.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP242025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  25.2  17.7  18.1  27.6  31.3  28.2  28.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  84.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  19.0   6.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.5%        2.8%