Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  18.4  23.6  19.4  28.0  28.7  25.4  29.8  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  44.0  41.0  38.0  31.0  34.0  35.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  37.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  39.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  77.0  71.0  80.0  52.0  59.0  22.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  80.0  80.0  87.0  F  N  F  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  14.0  18.0  11.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        1.9%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        3.9%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP242025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  18.4  23.6  19.4  28.0  28.7  25.4  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  80.0  80.0  87.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  14.0  18.0  11.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%