Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  23.7  19.4  27.5  28.6  26.6  28.3  31.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  41.0  38.0  34.0  31.0  35.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  42.0  42.0  44.3  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  71.0  80.0  54.0  59.0  32.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  80.0  83.0  86.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  15.0   9.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        3.2%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 WP242025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  23.7  19.4  27.5  28.6  26.6  28.3  31.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  80.0  83.0  86.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  15.0   9.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%