Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  13.5  17.1  16.7  21.3  20.2  23.0  32.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  32.0  23.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0  40.1  42.3  35.7  21.6  11.0  -5.6 -12.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  58.0  28.0  -5.0  60.0  18.0  -3.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   7.0   9.0   6.0  -1.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        4.1%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.3%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP242025 250923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  13.5  17.1  16.7  21.3  20.2  23.0  32.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   7.0   9.0   6.0  -1.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%