Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242025 250924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  19.0  19.7  24.6  23.1  24.6  24.6  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  30.0  28.0  14.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  42.3  47.0  49.3  33.6  11.0   1.5  -5.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  -5.0  34.0  61.0  19.0  -3.0  15.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  77.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   3.0  -2.0  12.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        4.4%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%        7.3%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        5.9%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        5.3%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 WP242025 250924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  19.0  19.7  24.6  23.1  24.6  24.6  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  77.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   3.0  -2.0  12.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%