Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250918 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.0 14.0 12.1 10.1 19.3 18.9 21.5 14.3 F F F F N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 51.0 48.0 48.0 35.0 32.0 26.0 17.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 122.9 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 36.0 39.0 37.0 11.0 -36.0 -16.0 -26.0 U N N N U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 49.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 VU VU U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -8.0 -4.0 N N F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 7.8% 5.2% 25kt / 24h 19.3% 52.1% 35.7% 30kt / 24h 10.5% 35.8% 23.1% 35kt / 24h 4.7% 35.7% 20.2% 40kt / 24h 3.0% 34.5% 18.7% 45kt / 36h 17.0% 61.7% 39.3% 55kt / 36h 12.6% 45.1% 28.8% 55kt / 48h 33.9% 37.3% 35.6% 70kt / 48h 17.3% 31.5% 24.4% 65kt / 72h 20.0% 40.3% 30.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 WP252025 250918 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.0 14.0 12.1 10.1 19.3 18.9 21.5 14.3 U U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 49.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 VF VF F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -8.0 -4.0 N N U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%