Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  12.1  11.4  15.2  17.0  21.5  19.9  15.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  43.0  36.0  34.0  32.0  28.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 122.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  39.0  36.0   1.0 -21.0 -31.0 -25.0  21.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  51.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -8.0  -5.0  -3.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       20.5%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       40.2%       72.3%       56.3%
 30kt / 24h       21.9%       65.4%       43.7%
 35kt / 24h       21.0%       65.4%       43.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       61.8%       33.4%
 45kt / 36h       24.0%       78.0%       51.0%
 55kt / 36h       17.9%       68.6%       43.3%
 55kt / 48h       28.7%       49.0%       38.8%
 70kt / 48h       13.5%       45.7%       29.6%
 65kt / 72h       16.0%       52.7%       34.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP252025 250918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  12.1  11.4  15.2  17.0  21.5  19.9  15.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  51.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -8.0  -5.0  -3.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%