Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250919 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 160.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 21.7 22.2 19.9 26.7 19.2 21.3 24.3 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 35.0 34.0 36.0 33.0 26.0 21.0 14.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 109.6 102.9 96.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 -21.0 17.0 -12.0 -1.0 13.0 58.0 90.0 U VU U U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 60.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -1.0 -4.0 2.0 5.0 N N F F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.9% 20.1% 17.0% 25kt / 24h 31.0% 55.6% 43.3% 30kt / 24h 21.6% 47.8% 34.7% 35kt / 24h 21.2% 47.8% 34.5% 40kt / 24h 7.2% 47.8% 27.5% 45kt / 36h 14.8% 42.9% 28.8% 55kt / 36h 8.9% 25.5% 17.2% 55kt / 48h 12.4% 21.2% 16.8% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 11.6% 7.8% 65kt / 72h 5.4% 14.4% 9.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 WP252025 250919 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 160.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 21.7 22.2 19.9 26.7 19.2 21.3 24.3 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 60.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -1.0 -4.0 2.0 5.0 N N U U N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%