Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250919 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 16.9 14.6 18.6 25.4 19.0 25.4 35.0 N F F N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 34.0 34.0 32.0 27.0 24.0 16.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 99.6 97.3 88.6 82.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -4.0 -21.0 -16.0 26.0 31.0 55.0 0.0 U U VU U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 49.0 46.0 U VU U U VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -1.0 -1.0 5.0 N F N F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 41.0% 31.7% 36.4% 25kt / 24h 48.9% 64.9% 56.9% 30kt / 24h 48.9% 64.9% 56.9% 35kt / 24h 48.9% 64.9% 56.9% 40kt / 24h 20.5% 64.9% 42.7% 45kt / 36h 25.1% 42.8% 33.9% 55kt / 36h 16.8% 26.5% 21.6% 55kt / 48h 16.2% 21.2% 18.7% 70kt / 48h 5.5% 10.9% 8.2% 65kt / 72h 2.2% 7.1% 4.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.64 WP252025 250919 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 16.9 14.6 18.6 25.4 19.0 25.4 35.0 N N U N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 49.0 46.0 F VF F F VF VF F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -1.0 -1.0 5.0 N U N U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%