Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250919 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 19.8 24.2 27.4 18.8 20.9 24.2 39.2 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 34.0 32.0 33.0 26.0 19.0 12.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 99.3 99.3 97.0 87.9 81.5 77.4 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 -12.0 -18.0 -1.0 12.0 57.0 89.0 28.0 U U U U U N F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 57.0 61.0 53.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 25.2% 20.5% 22.9% 25kt / 24h 30.4% 43.3% 36.9% 30kt / 24h 30.4% 39.4% 34.9% 35kt / 24h 30.4% 39.4% 34.9% 40kt / 24h 8.8% 39.4% 24.1% 45kt / 36h 14.7% 24.5% 19.6% 55kt / 36h 7.4% 11.5% 9.5% 55kt / 48h 4.9% 12.5% 8.7% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 4.3% 2.7% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 3.1% 1.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 WP252025 250919 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 19.8 24.2 27.4 18.8 20.9 24.2 39.2 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 57.0 61.0 53.0 F F F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%