Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250920 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 156.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 20.3 22.1 19.8 18.5 20.0 38.8 44.8 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 35.0 33.0 31.0 24.0 16.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 94.3 94.3 89.6 87.3 78.6 74.4 66.6 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 20.0 -1.0 -12.0 47.0 100.0 42.0 21.0 U U U U N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 49.0 52.0 50.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 16.0 13.0 0.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 37.8% 29.6% 33.7% 25kt / 24h 41.1% 57.2% 49.1% 30kt / 24h 41.1% 57.2% 49.1% 35kt / 24h 41.1% 57.2% 49.1% 40kt / 24h 19.6% 57.2% 38.4% 45kt / 36h 24.4% 34.6% 29.5% 55kt / 36h 13.5% 19.1% 16.3% 55kt / 48h 12.0% 17.5% 14.8% 70kt / 48h 3.5% 6.1% 4.8% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 2.0% 1.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 WP252025 250920 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 156.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 20.3 22.1 19.8 18.5 20.0 38.8 44.8 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 49.0 52.0 50.0 51.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 16.0 13.0 0.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%