Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250920 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.90 156.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 21.3 22.6 19.0 21.2 29.2 39.3 40.7 F N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 30.0 27.0 26.0 19.0 12.0 10.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.3 79.3 74.6 72.3 65.7 59.4 51.6 46.2 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 11.0 40.0 43.0 77.0 54.0 20.0 20.0 U U N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 52.0 56.0 51.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -6.0 -8.0 -4.0 2.0 -1.0 -25.0 -9.0 N F F F N N VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 68.7% 48.2% 58.5% 25kt / 24h 64.5% 67.0% 65.7% 30kt / 24h 64.5% 67.0% 65.7% 35kt / 24h 64.5% 67.0% 65.7% 40kt / 24h 36.2% 66.5% 51.3% 45kt / 36h 44.4% 43.2% 43.8% 55kt / 36h 20.7% 27.5% 24.1% 55kt / 48h 15.5% 10.0% 12.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.36 WP252025 250920 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.90 156.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 21.3 22.6 19.0 21.2 29.2 39.3 40.7 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 52.0 56.0 51.0 48.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -6.0 -8.0 -4.0 2.0 -1.0 -25.0 -9.0 N U U U N N VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2%