Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    155.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  17.3  13.1  14.2  20.9  39.4  42.0  51.4  N  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  27.0  26.0  24.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  74.6  74.6  72.3  63.6  59.4  57.4  51.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  12.0  15.0  79.0  83.0  60.0  79.0  83.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -4.0   1.0  15.0  12.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.1%       15.7%       18.4%
 25kt / 24h       26.9%       38.7%       32.8%
 30kt / 24h       24.8%       38.6%       31.7%
 35kt / 24h       24.8%       38.6%       31.7%
 40kt / 24h       11.7%       36.3%       24.0%
 45kt / 36h       28.6%       17.4%       23.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.3%        7.4%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        3.9%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP252025 250920 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    155.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  17.3  13.1  14.2  20.9  39.4  42.0  51.4  N  N  U  U  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -4.0   1.0  15.0  12.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  U  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%