Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250921 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 152.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 14.9 22.7 23.0 40.7 41.0 48.5 45.1 F F N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 24.0 19.0 16.0 12.0 11.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 34.6 30.1 25.7 23.6 17.4 15.5 15.5 11.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 62.0 92.0 87.0 30.0 37.0 57.0 126.0 N N F F N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 47.0 51.0 62.0 62.0 U VU VU U VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 0.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 3.0 F N U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.9% 17.4% 30.1% 25kt / 24h 16.8% 13.7% 15.2% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 WP252025 250921 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 152.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 14.9 22.7 23.0 40.7 41.0 48.5 45.1 U U N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 47.0 51.0 62.0 62.0 F VF VF F VF F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 0.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 3.0 U N F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.7% 2.4%