Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    151.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  21.7  22.0  27.8  46.0  33.5  38.9  47.5  F  N  N  N VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  21.0  16.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.1  25.7  25.7  23.6  17.4  15.5  15.5   2.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  74.0  52.0  76.0  38.0  21.0  19.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   5.0   3.0  15.0   4.0   3.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        3.0%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 WP252025 250921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    151.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  21.7  22.0  27.8  46.0  33.5  38.9  47.5  U  N  N  N VF  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   5.0   3.0  15.0   4.0   3.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.5%        3.7%