Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250921 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 151.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 21.8 27.4 42.5 36.8 33.3 30.2 58.3 N N N VU U U N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 30.7 30.7 28.6 26.5 20.5 20.5 16.6 -2.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 52.0 77.0 16.0 23.0 31.0 52.0 86.0 N N N U U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 55.0 55.0 51.0 53.0 59.0 63.0 53.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 4.0 14.0 18.0 5.0 -7.0 27.0 N N N U VU N F VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.78 WP252025 250921 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 151.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 21.8 27.4 42.5 36.8 33.3 30.2 58.3 N N N VF F F N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 55.0 55.0 51.0 53.0 59.0 63.0 53.0 F F F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 4.0 14.0 18.0 5.0 -7.0 27.0 N N N F VF N U VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 17.0% 8.5%