Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250921 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 150.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 27.8 42.0 47.3 35.4 41.4 41.5 39.8 N N VU VU U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.7 38.6 38.6 36.5 36.5 36.5 26.6 17.7 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 76.0 15.0 39.0 22.0 22.0 54.0 8.0 N N U N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 51.0 47.0 50.0 57.0 61.0 56.0 48.0 U U VU U U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 3.0 13.0 17.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 38.0 N N U U N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.74 WP252025 250921 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 150.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 27.8 42.0 47.3 35.4 41.4 41.5 39.8 N N VF VF F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 51.0 47.0 50.0 57.0 61.0 56.0 48.0 F F VF F F N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 3.0 13.0 17.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 38.0 N N F F N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 31.1% 15.5%