Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250922 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.70 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 41.3 49.5 44.2 35.8 38.4 41.1 18.1 N VU VU VU U U VU F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.0 11.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.5 41.5 39.4 39.4 39.4 35.5 28.0 24.4 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 -4.0 48.0 37.0 -5.0 33.0 31.0 -23.0 N U N N U N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 48.0 52.0 57.0 59.0 46.0 39.0 U VU U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 10.0 15.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 21.0 27.0 N U U U U N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 WP252025 250922 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.70 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 41.3 49.5 44.2 35.8 38.4 41.1 18.1 N VF VF VF F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 48.0 52.0 57.0 59.0 46.0 39.0 F VF F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 10.0 15.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 21.0 27.0 N F F F F N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 29.7% 14.9%