Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250922 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.20 151.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.2 49.4 41.5 38.6 34.8 35.5 30.3 26.2 VU VU VU U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 15.0 12.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 35.5 35.5 35.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 48.0 37.0 23.0 19.0 33.0 17.0 -42.0 U N N U U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 53.0 56.0 62.0 55.0 45.0 41.0 U U U U N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 15.0 11.0 6.0 4.0 -10.0 34.0 4.0 U U U N N F VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 WP252025 250922 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.20 151.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.2 49.4 41.5 38.6 34.8 35.5 30.3 26.2 VF VF VF F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 53.0 56.0 62.0 55.0 45.0 41.0 F F F F N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 15.0 11.0 6.0 4.0 -10.0 34.0 4.0 F F F N N U VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 27.0% 13.6%