Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    152.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  35.3  31.8  34.0  25.1  26.8  16.5  22.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  17.0  15.0  13.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.4  54.4  54.4  54.4  54.4  50.5  43.0  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  14.0  21.0   9.0  53.0  15.0  -8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  51.0  44.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0   6.0  11.0  -4.0   3.0  14.0 -13.0  U  U  N  U  F  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 WP252025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    152.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  35.3  31.8  34.0  25.1  26.8  16.5  22.5  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  51.0  44.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0   6.0  11.0  -4.0   3.0  14.0 -13.0  F  F  N  F  U  N  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       12.6%        6.3%