Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  36.8  34.0  29.8  35.8  18.7  22.0  20.8  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4  64.4  64.4  64.4  60.5  54.8  60.5  62.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  21.0   9.0  22.0  17.0 -47.0  20.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  60.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  44.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   7.0  11.0   0.0 -17.0   9.0   0.0  -3.0  U  N  U  N VF  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 WP252025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  36.8  34.0  29.8  35.8  18.7  22.0  20.8  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  60.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  42.0  44.0  F  F  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   7.0  11.0   0.0 -17.0   9.0   0.0  -3.0  F  N  F  N VU  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.5%        3.8%