Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    153.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  33.3  30.3  28.6  22.2  25.2  23.8  20.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  13.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  59.4  59.4  53.5  48.0  53.5  55.5  57.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  20.0  30.0  45.0 -24.0  -7.0 -14.0   5.0  N  U  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  63.0  59.0  45.0  40.0  37.0  48.0  U  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  -2.0  -9.0   2.0   0.0  -7.0  -3.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 WP252025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    153.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.