Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    153.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  26.8  19.5  24.4  20.0  20.7  20.9  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  15.0  14.0  11.0  11.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  69.4  63.5  63.5  56.2  58.0  59.8  59.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  17.0  49.0  33.0   1.0   9.0  17.0  29.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  50.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 WP252025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    153.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.