Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250923 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 153.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.7 25.9 21.2 19.4 20.4 24.6 22.6 21.0 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 15.0 14.0 15.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.4 73.5 73.5 73.5 73.5 69.8 69.8 62.7 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 34.0 -13.0 2.0 10.0 18.0 29.0 29.0 N N U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 48.0 43.0 44.0 45.0 48.0 49.0 47.0 U U VU VU VU U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 0.0 9.0 23.0 F N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 WP252025 250923 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 153.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.