Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 153.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 20.6 21.5 18.6 20.4 27.5 50.9 87.4 N N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.5 76.6 71.2 71.2 61.1 42.9 4.6 -11.8 N U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 35.0 53.0 66.0 73.0 85.0 80.0 65.0 U N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 43.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 42.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 8.0 2.0 32.0 16.0 16.0-218.0 98.0 N U N VU U U VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 8.6% 0.2% 4.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.96 WP252025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 153.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.