Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    153.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.8  16.0  16.8  27.7  48.1  75.4  86.7  N  N  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  11.0   9.0  10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  78.0  76.2  76.2  58.6  38.8   4.7  -6.9  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  43.0  69.0  77.0  66.0  82.0  83.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  44.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  29.0  21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0  14.0   2.0  -5.0 -30.0 -51.0 -24.0  U  U  U  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        0.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.86

 WP252025 250926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    153.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.