Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250927 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 155.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 21.8 20.8 30.4 42.9 69.1 61.9 51.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.8 67.7 59.6 53.6 21.6 -1.5 -11.8 -14.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 64.0 44.0 36.0 69.0 94.0 112.0 2.0 -49.0 N N N N F F U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 47.0 46.0 47.0 40.0 39.0 35.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 3.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 -24.0 5.0 N N N U N N VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 1.5% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 2.2% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.50 WP252025 250927 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 155.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.