Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  20.7  29.5  39.4  60.8  72.4  62.3  58.1  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  59.6  53.6  32.7   5.1  -9.4 -14.1 -15.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  36.0  68.0  74.0 145.0  16.0   5.0 -53.0  N  N  N  N VF  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  50.0  43.0  35.0  29.0  30.0  23.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0 -13.0   4.0 -16.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N VF  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        1.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.88

 WP252025 250927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.