Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250927 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 158.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 27.2 33.6 45.2 63.2 61.1 61.1 61.1 F N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.6 48.6 27.7 15.8 -11.0 -16.8 -16.8 -16.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 69.0 65.0 73.0 109.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 N N N N F U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 46.0 41.0 36.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 0.0 -20.0 -19.0 -3.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 F N VF VF N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.0% 1.1% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 WP252025 250927 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 158.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.