Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250928 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 162.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 45.7 51.2 54.3 49.4 28.2 44.2 45.3 U VU VU VU VU N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -2.3 -15.0 -29.9 -41.3 -46.9 -49.4 -48.8 -49.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 116.0 97.0 108.0 -10.0 -14.0 -3.0 18.0 F F F F U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 39.0 38.0 34.0 35.0 38.0 36.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -17.0 -6.0 -1.0 -37.0 -7.0 27.0 28.0 F VF F N VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.98 WP252025 250928 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 162.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.