Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250928 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 164.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 49.0 53.4 61.0 36.5 29.1 44.3 54.6 U VU VU VU U N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -30.0 -44.9 -56.3 -59.7 -64.2 -63.9 -64.8 -65.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 116.0 97.0 109.0 -4.0 -28.0 17.0 -48.0 18.0 F F F U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 39.0 35.0 34.0 39.0 36.0 40.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -9.0 0.0 -10.0 3.0 10.0 3.0 31.0 VF F N F N U N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.24 WP252025 250928 06UTC Storm Located at : 35.80 164.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110.