Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 40.30 169.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 62.0 61.3 55.1 44.8 43.3 45.8 50.8 46.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -44.7 -47.1 -49.1 -50.6 -50.3 -49.6 -49.2 -48.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 32.0 -6.0 -16.0 -42.0 -38.0 1.0 -15.0 F N U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 32.0 35.0 36.0 38.0 35.0 38.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -17.0 3.0 -17.0 16.0 24.0 36.0 33.0 N VF N VF U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.22 WP252025 250928 18UTC Storm Located at : 40.30 169.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.