Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 42.40 172.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.2 59.2 44.9 37.5 44.4 43.1 43.1 37.6 VU VU VU U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] -42.3 -44.1 -44.4 -45.5 -45.2 -44.5 -42.7 -42.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 -6.0 -15.0 -41.0 -40.0 3.0 -23.0 17.0 N U U VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 35.0 35.0 37.0 36.0 34.0 36.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 0.0 -33.0 6.0 42.0 29.0 40.0 40.0 VF N VF N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.14 WP252025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 42.40 172.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.