Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250929 06UTC Storm Located at : 43.30 175.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.0 42.0 39.1 46.6 45.9 38.0 34.2 45.8 VU VU U VU VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] -27.1 -29.4 -29.2 -29.1 -28.5 -27.8 -27.5 -27.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 12.0 -47.0 -71.0 -64.0 -32.0 3.0 65.0 U U VU VU VU VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 36.0 34.0 31.0 31.0 32.0 29.0 27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -15.0 13.0 24.0 31.0 42.0 23.0 6.0 F VF U VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.10 WP252025 250929 06UTC Storm Located at : 43.30 175.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.