Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 44.60 178.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.8 45.8 48.0 53.1 52.8 54.4 55.1 46.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] -9.4 -10.5 -10.3 -10.2 -9.4 -9.1 -7.1 -6.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 -10.0 -48.0 -47.0 -44.0 -19.0 -30.0 -18.0 U U VU VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 35.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 40.0 38.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -12.0 20.0 17.0 40.0 70.0 67.0 40.0 VF F VU U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 13.10 WP252025 250929 12UTC Storm Located at : 44.60 178.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.