Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262025 250923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  38.3  42.6  40.4  53.3  54.4  54.7  60.1  N  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  99.0  97.0  97.0  98.0  91.0  80.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   134.0 157.0 165.0 136.0 155.0 115.0 117.0  96.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       14.9%       23.8%       19.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        8.0%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        7.3%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       21.1%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        5.8%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       24.2%        5.8%       15.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%        4.0%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       28.4%        9.3%       18.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP262025 250923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  38.3  42.6  40.4  53.3  54.4  54.7  60.1  N  F VF  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%