Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262025 250923 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.50 133.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.3 40.1 38.5 40.2 48.0 47.4 46.1 34.8 U U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 98.0 98.0 98.0 102.0 111.0 83.0 75.0 F F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 157.0 166.0 136.0 158.0 140.0 126.0 116.0 75.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 79.0 79.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 75.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -6.0 -16.0 -16.0 N N N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 19.4% 27.9% 23.6% 30kt / 24h 5.9% 10.6% 8.2% 35kt / 24h 1.4% 10.2% 5.8% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 7.3% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 8.6% 23.7% 16.1% 55kt / 36h 2.4% 6.8% 4.6% 55kt / 48h 26.7% 8.1% 17.4% 70kt / 48h 9.4% 5.4% 7.4% 65kt / 72h 39.5% 19.9% 29.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP262025 250923 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.50 133.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.3 40.1 38.5 40.2 48.0 47.4 46.1 34.8 F F F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 79.0 79.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -6.0 -16.0 -16.0 N N N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%